Posted by
Young Republican on Tuesday, August 19, 2008 6:01:32 PM
Perhaps it's just me but doesn't every state think that "they" will be the ones to pick the winner. The candidates must focus exclusively on "them" if they are to win, "we are the swing state that will determine it all". Michigan, my state, is not immune. However a closer look will tell you that it's colored blue for a reason.
Often times we look at traditional polling to see which candidate will be the winner. But often the tool used by traditional campaign is to use my term "the flip factor". You have to look at past voting, the actual voters who came out in the last elections and see how many you how many you have to flip to your side, for the incumbent or party of last winner you have to look at the "retain factor".
To look even at this, McCain would look to play well in Michigan. John Kerry won here with 51% of the vote but for all purposes I'll be using the actual margin of voters. He won the state with 166,000 voters over President Bush. All McCain would have to do is flip 87,000 and he could win, a task but do able to say the least.
However 2006 data would look to kill that dream. In 2006, Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) beat Dick Devos (R) by 534,000 votes making the flip factor 267,000. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) beat Mike Bouchard 592,000 making the flip close to 300,000 votes. And having worked on both the Devos and Bouchard campaigns, they were filled with some of the most experienced staff, had excellent ads and a campaign warchest filled to the brim with money.
Now is a race for governor, senator or even president four years ago an absolute mark of who will win in the future? No. But it is a strong factor. Many Republicans have hopes that Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's legal problems causing voter problems for Obama. This is doubtful, white voters continue to despise Kilpatrick but fully support and adore others. Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy (D), an African American is considered so strong she faced not one challenge in her bid for re-election. She is prosecuting Kilpatrick.
With the Governor due to kick Kilpatrick out of office within 2 weeks, her political stock will soar and she will become an absolute asset to Barack Obama. She is already being used for daily e-mail updates by the campaign. Barack Obama still has to reassure older voters, blue collar workers and the jewish community of him. But many already are. Add to that the passion of his supporters, the lack there of from McCain supporters (the majority of who are voting for him because "he is the lesser of two evils") the huge expected increase in black voters (we are a high minority state) and four more years of young voters getting added to the rolls and four more years of older Bush voters dying, Obama should be fine, should be.
Michigan voters went Democratic with an absolutely terrible governor who lost jobs by the dozen in her state. She did so by blaming Republicans and big business. She won huge, Stabenow won huge. Barack Obama should win. I'm not going to predict a margin but come November expect Michigan to turn blue once again.